Polling Distilled

Australian polling, distilled

Source: Essential Report, December 10, 2024
Sample: ~1,030 Australians
Format: Plain-language summaries of polling data

Approval of Anthony Albanese as Prime Minister

Albanese's approval and disapproval ratings are now roughly equal at 45-48% each, marking a significant shift from his position as Opposition Leader. His approval peaked around 58% in mid-2022 when he became PM but has declined steadily since, while disapproval has risen consistently over the same period. 'Don't know' responses have remained low at about 10% throughout.

Current approval and disapproval ratings are both approximately 45-48%, with about 10% saying 'Don't know'

Approval of Sussan Ley as Opposition Leader

Disapproval of Sussan Ley as Opposition Leader currently sits at 43%, significantly higher than her 34% approval rating, with 23% undecided. Disapproval has risen steadily while approval has remained relatively stable in the low-to-mid 30s.

Current figures show approximately 43% disapprove, 34% approve, and 23% don't know

Australian National Mood: Right Direction vs Wrong Track

47% of Australians believe the country is on the wrong track compared to 37% who say it's heading in the right direction, with 18% unsure. 'Wrong track' sentiment has increased significantly from around 25% in mid-2022, while 'right direction' has declined from about 45% over the same period.

Currently 47% say Australia is on the wrong track, 37% say right direction, and 18% are unsure

Did 2025 Meet Expectations?

40% of Australians say 2025 ended up worse than they expected at the start of the year, while 31% say it met expectations and 25% say it was better than expected. This pattern of disappointed expectations has remained remarkably consistent over recent years, with roughly 40% consistently reporting years fell short of their hopes.

40% worse than expected, 31% as expected, 25% better than expected, 4% prefer not to say

Better or Worse Off Than 3 Years Ago

42% of Australians say they are worse off than they were 3 years ago, significantly more than the 26% who say they are better off. About one-third (32%) report being about the same as they were 3 years ago.

26% better off, 32% about the same, 42% worse off

Expectations for 2026

Australians are evenly split on whether 2026 will be better or worse than 2025, with 33% expecting improvement and 33% expecting decline, while 26% see no difference and 12% are unsure. Optimism about the year ahead has declined notably over recent years, while pessimism has increased to match it.

33% expect 2026 to be better, 33% expect worse, 26% see no difference, 12% unsure

Has 2025 Been a Good or Bad Year?

Large companies had the best year according to Australians, with 47% rating it good or very good and only 15% rating it negative. Respondents were most positive about their own families (39% positive, 27% negative), while the Australian economy was viewed most negatively with 44% saying it had been bad or very bad compared to just 26% rating it positively. Workers fell in the middle with 30% positive and 31% negative assessments.

Large companies: 47% positive, 15% negative; Personal/family: 39% positive, 27% negative; Australian economy: 26% positive, 44% negative; Workers: 30% positive, 31% negative

Economic Expectations for 2026

Australians expect prices to rise across the board in 2026, with 75% predicting grocery prices will increase and 72% expecting energy prices to climb. Interest rates are also expected to rise by 51% of respondents, while wage expectations are pessimistic with 54% expecting decreases and only 25% anticipating increases.

Grocery prices: 75% expect up, 9% same, 13% down; Energy prices: 72% up, 8% same, 14% down; Interest rates: 51% up, 14% same, 28% down; Wages: 25% up, 15% same, 54% down

Confidence in Addressing Key Issues

Australians are deeply pessimistic about the country's ability to address housing affordability and cost of living, with 58% pessimistic about housing and 60% pessimistic about cost of living. Only 19% are optimistic about either issue. In contrast, Australians show more confidence in maintaining international relations (34% optimistic vs 27% pessimistic) and protecting nature (30% optimistic).

Housing affordability: 58% pessimistic vs 19% optimistic. Cost of living: 60% pessimistic vs 19% optimistic. International relations: 34% optimistic vs 27% pessimistic. Climate change and AI introduction show more mixed responses with significant neutral percentages.

Is the World Becoming More Divided?

61% of Australians believe the world is becoming more divided, though this perception has decreased from 70% three months ago. About one-third (31%) think things are staying the same, while very few see the world becoming more united (9%).

Currently: 61% more divided, 31% staying the same, 9% more united. Three months ago: 70% more divided, 23% staying the same, 7% more united.

How Australia Compares to Other Countries

73% of Australians agree that Australia is a better place to live than most other countries, while 68% express pride in being Australian. However, views are more mixed on whether Australia needs to be a better global citizen, with only 46% agreeing, 37% remaining neutral, and 17% disagreeing.

Better place to live: 73% agree (37% strongly, 36% somewhat), 19% disagree. Proud of Australia: 68% agree (34% strongly, 34% somewhat), 20% disagree. Better global citizen: 46% agree (17% strongly, 29% somewhat), 37% neutral, 17% disagree.

What Will Barnaby Joyce Do Next?

Most Australians (approximately 40-45%) expect Barnaby Joyce will continue to sit in parliament as an independent following his resignation from the Nationals leadership. Around 20-25% think he will join One Nation, while roughly 15-20% believe he will reconsider and return to the Nationals.

Approximately 40-45% expect him to sit as an independent, 20-25% think he'll join One Nation, 15-20% believe he'll return to the Nationals, 15% unsure

What Affects One Nation Voting Likelihood

Pauline Hanson wearing a burqa in parliament remains the most polarizing scenario, with 34% of Australians saying it made them more likely to vote One Nation while 42% said it made them less likely. The prospect of Barnaby Joyce joining One Nation shows less dramatic impacts, with 33% more likely and 39% less likely to vote for the party, while roughly one-third remained unsure across all scenarios tested.

Burqa scenario: 34% more likely (17% much more, 17% more), 23% unsure, 42% less likely (13% less, 29% much less). Joyce joining: 33% more likely (13% much more, 20% more), 28% unsure, 39% less likely (15% less, 24% much less).

Social Media Ban for Under-16s

Support for banning social media for children under 16 currently sits at 57%, though this represents a significant 12-point decline from 69% support when first measured. Opposition to the ban has increased from 17% to 21% over the same period, indicating growing skepticism despite maintaining majority support.

Current support: 57%, Opposition: 21%, Neither support nor oppose: remaining percentage

Will a Social Media Ban Actually Work?

Australians are divided on whether a social media ban would be effective at preventing children from accessing platforms. Responses split between those who think it would stop most children, those who think some would be stopped but others would find loopholes, and those who believe most children would find ways around it.

Responses divided across: effective (most children stopped), somewhat effective (some stopped, others find loopholes), not effective (most find loopholes)

Top AI Concerns for Australians

Job replacement is Australians' top AI concern, with 73% quite or very worried (37% very concerned, 36% quite concerned), followed closely by concerns about undermining creative industries at 71%. Concerns about AI's energy consumption sit at 62%, while 57% are concerned about AI making things seem magical or effortless.

Job replacement: 73% concerned (37% very, 36% quite); Creative industries: 71% concerned (35% very, 36% quite); Energy/resources: 62% concerned (29% very, 33% quite); Appearing magical: 57% concerned (26% very, 31% quite)

Concerns About Santa Tradition

Most Australians are not concerned about potential negative impacts of the Santa tradition, with 60-68% expressing little to no concern across four potential issues. The lying aspect generates the highest concern at 32%, while promoting consumption as a source of happiness concerns 41% of respondents. Concerns about undermining religious meaning and suggesting things appear by magic both sit at around 32-33%.

Lying to children: 68% not concerned, 32% concerned (12% very, 20% quite). Promoting consumption: 60% not concerned, 41% concerned. Undermining religious meaning: 68% not concerned, 32% concerned. Appearing by magic: 67% not concerned, 33% concerned.